PostHeaderIcon Fox on Trump

I have noticed over the years that the Fox News polls are often out of step with their own editorial positions, and my desires. Unfortunately sometimes, they are also often indicative of trends, which have not yet been caught or admitted by other pollsters. Thus, their latest release, “Fox News Poll: Trump gains in Iowa, still dominates in New Hampshire,” struck me as encouraging. Not only does it seem to confirm Cruz’ pronouncement that Sara Palin can pick a winner, the timing would indicate that she is likely helping Trump to be one. This probably puts to bed the wishful speculation from Cruz supporters, suggesting that her endorsement would not help, and might even hurt Trump’s campaign:

With just over a week until the first 2016 election contest, Donald Trump takes the lead in Iowa — and maintains his big advantage in New Hampshire.

That’s according to the latest round of Fox News state polls on the Republican presidential nomination contest.



Trump bests Ted Cruz in Iowa and now receives 34 percent support among Republican caucus-goers.  Trump was at 23 percent in the Fox News Poll two weeks ago (January 4-7).

Cruz is second with 23 percent — down a touch from 27 percent.  Marco Rubio comes in third with 12 percent, down from 15 percent.  No others garner double-digit support.

Among caucus-goers who identify as “very” conservative, Cruz was up by 18 points over Trump earlier this month.  Now they each receive about a third among this group (Cruz 34 percent vs. Trump 33 percent).

There’s been a similar shift among white evangelical Christians.  Cruz’s 14-point advantage is now down to a 2-point edge.

A lot has happened in the intervening two weeks.  Fox Business Network hosted a Republican debate where Trump questioned Cruz’s eligibility to be president, and Cruz attacked Trump’s liberal “New York values.”  On Tuesday, Gov. Terry Branstad urged his fellow Iowans to vote against Cruz because of his opposition to ethanol — and former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Trump.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw says, “We tend to over-interpret every little thing in a presidential race, but here we actually have solid evidence Trump didn’t just win last week in Iowa — he won it by enough to put some distance between himself and Cruz.”  Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.

Then, there is New Hampshire:

Unlike Iowa, there has been little movement in the New Hampshire Republican race. Trump continues to garner more than twice the support of his nearest competitors.

The Fox News poll shows Trump at 31 percent (down 2 points), Cruz at 14 percent (up 2 points) and Rubio at 13 percent (down 2 points).

Kasich is at 9 percent, Bush and Christie each receive 7 percent, Carson and Paul tie at 5 percent, while Fiorina gets 3 percent, and Huckabee 1 percent.

It would appear to me that a Cruz supporter would have to dig pretty deep to find any good news for him in this poll. The provided links are useful to drill down into them, if you want to try.  ;)  ◄Dave►

2 Responses to “Fox on Trump”

  • Larry Andrew says:

    The trends are clear to me altho the reasons are probably many. Not sure what Palin did for him but Trump has proven to be just brilliant in the way he parcels out the bombs. The birther issue has the most impact, I think, along with Trump’s continuing to mention the Cruz connection to Goldman Sachs and Citibank.

    This a.m. the poll I saw showed Trump gaining 11 points in Iowa while Cruz dropped 4 and the rest also lost some. Trump even slept in Iowa lost night. I think the GOP primary may just be over unless all, save one, of the establishment types drop out.

    • Agreed. That is the same numbers revealed in the Fox poll. Good analysis, Larry. One thing is for sure, nobody is going to drop out just to stop Trump. I suspect most at this point are hoping he will pick them for VP. The Republican Senators, who it seems universally despise Cruz, seem to be accepting the inevitable and warming to Trump. Speaking of the banks, standby for a new post on his wife. She is even more well-connected to the establishment oligarchy than he is! â—„Daveâ–º

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